Measuring business cycles: Empirical Mode Decomposition of economic time series

This paper continues discussion on the issue of time series decomposition by presentation of the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique. This technique outperforms well-known time-series filters by providing a deeper insight into the structure of time series.     

Trading firms in the services sectors: comparable evidence from four EU countries

We establish a set of stylised facts for trade and trading firms in five market services sectors using comparable firm- and activity-level data from four EU countries. Our analysis shows that exports account for much lower shares of overall sales in the services sectors than in manufacturing. This is because fewer firms are engaged in trade in the services sectors and also because within particular sectors firms trade a lower share of their sales on average. Services producers trade mostly goods, but in terms of value, trade in services is much more important to them than to manufacturers. Larger and more productive firms are more likely to be two-way traders and to engage in both goods and services trade. Trade by services firms is somewhat less dominated by firms that both export and import than trade by manufacturing firms. Few firms export many services or to many countries. The value of services exports is increasing in the number of markets served but not necessarily in the number of services traded.     

The impact of China's imports on European Union industrial employment

As the EU's biggest supplier of imported goods and a second trading partner, China has become an increasingly important actor on the global economic scene. This paper reports new evidence through analyzing whether the EU labour market is affected by exposure to imports from China. Drawing on a panel dataset of 27 EU countries, over the 2003–2013 period, and using the pooled mean group estimator, the results show that imports from China have a negative effect on industrial employment. This result holds separately for the all analyzed categories: all products, manufactured products as well as for the sub‐groups.     

Financial Performance of the Automotive Industry in Selected EU Countries

International Advances in Economic Research -     

Does international openness affect the productivity of local firms?

This paper examines how international openness can change firm productivity in south‐eastern Europe (SEE), a crucial question for middle‐income countries. Using firm‐level data for six transition economies over the 1995–2002 period, we identify whether foreign ownership and propensity to trade with more advanced countries can bring about higher learning effects. We find that: (i) foreign ownership has helped restructure and enhance the productivity of local firms in four out of six countries; (ii) exporting to advanced markets has a larger impact on productivity growth in four countries, especially when the firm's absorptive capacity is taken into account; (iii) in contrast, exporting to the less competitive markets of the former Yugoslavia seems to negatively affect productivity growth in three countries; and (iv) learning effects from importing are similar to those from exporting. Our results suggest that trade liberalization is not uniformly beneficial. Regional composition of trade flows and absorptive capacity of local firms matter. Thus, trade liberalization within the SEE region may not provide a substitute for a general trade liberalization which includes access to the more competitive markets of countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development.     

Lessons from Nominal Convergence in Slovenia

Two years after joining the ERM2 mechanism Slovenia had fulfilled the legal requirements for joining EMU as well as the Maastricht criteria. This article analyses how the path to EMU affected Slovenian nominal convergence, more specifically yield spread movements for standardised maturities. For that purpose daily Slovenian yield curves were estimated in the period after introduction of the OTC–DVP market. The results show that yield spreads between the Slovenian and the generic EMU government yield curves decreased significantly at the beginning of March 2006 when Slovenia requested individual appraisal of EMU criteria fulfilment. Yield spreads decreased further in July 2006 when the definite fixed exchange rate was set.     

Firm efficiency: Domestic owners,coalitions, and FDI

In this paper we analyze the evolution of firm efficiency in the Czech Republic. Using a large panel of more than 190,000 Czech firm/years we study whether firms fully utilize their resources, how firm efficiency evolves over time, and how firm efficiency is determined by ownership structure. We employ a panel version of a stochastic production frontier model for the period 1996–2007 with time-varying efficiency. We differentiate among various degrees of ownership concentration and domestic or foreign origin. In a two-stage set-up we first estimate the degree of firm inefficiency and then the effect of ownership structure on the distance from the efficiency frontier. Our results support the hypothesis that concentrated ownership is positively related to efficiency. FDI has beneficial effects at the microeconomic level. However, we show that a simple majority is not necessarily the best structure to improve efficiency. We further analyze the effects of ownership coalitions and shed light on many other subtleties of how ownership and the specific industry affect firm efficiency.     

The reaction of asset prices to macroeconomic announcements in new EU markets: Evidence from intraday data

We estimate the impact of macroeconomic news on composite stock returns in three emerging European Union financial markets (the Budapest BUX, Prague PX-50, and Warsaw WIG-20), using intraday data and macroeconomic announcements. Our contribution is twofold. We employ a larger set of macroeconomic data releases than used in previous studies and also use intraday data, an excess impact approach, and foreign news to provide more reliable inferences. Composite stock returns are computed based on 5-min intervals (ticks) and macroeconomic news are measured based on the deviations of the actual announcement values from their expectations. Overall, we find that all three new EU stock markets are subject to significant spillovers directly via the composite index returns from the EU, the U.S. and neighboring markets; Budapest exhibits the strongest spillover effect, followed by Warsaw and Prague. The Czech and Hungarian markets are also subject to spillovers indirectly through the transmission of macroeconomic news. The impact of EU-wide announcements is evidenced more in the case of Hungary, while the Czech market is more impacted by U.S. news. The Polish market is marginally affected by EU news. In addition, after decomposing pooled announcements, we show that the impact of multiple announcements is stronger than that of single news. Our results suggest that the impact of foreign macroeconomic announcements goes beyond the impact of the foreign stock markets on Central and Eastern European indices. We also discuss the implications of the findings for financial stability in the three emerging European markets.     

Do innovation spillovers impact employment and skill upgrading?

So far, the research on impact of innovation on employment and skills focused on effects within firms and sectors. Little attention was paid to the influence of interlinkages between sectors as a source of employment change. The main contribution of this paper to the field refers to broadening the analysis of innovation impacts to innovation spillovers from vertically linked sectors on firms' employment and skill change in user industries. The empirical analysis conclusively demonstrates an important role of innovation spillovers in the economy. Firms' employment growth is shown to benefit significantly from spillovers of product innovations in manufacturing and knowledge-intensive services. Similarly, firms that are subject to increased spillovers of product innovations as well as marketing and organisational innovations are more likely to upgrade their skill composition. Conversely, employment growth and skill composition of firms seem to be negatively affected by spillovers of process innovations in vertically linked sectors.     

Knowledge-intensive business services in transition economies

Knowledge-intensive business services accounted for a rapid growth in transition economies after 1989. The growth in value added outpaced growth in employment, which indicated increasing labour productivity in this sector. Studies based on input–output tables found that development of business services was closely related to development of communication services in advanced EU member countries. The input–output analysis did not confirm this relation for Slovakia and the Czech Republic and found a medium to strong level of correlation for Hungary. Development of a market economy was likely to be a major factor behind development of business services. This assumption was tested on empirical data. The use of communication and business services could be a proxy for introduction of new technologies in production functions. The functions indicated that these industries made a significant contribution to economic growth both in advanced and transition economies. Output elasticity coefficients were quite similar in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia and the EU member countries.